Polymarket‘s 36% Ceasefire Probability: A Macro Watcher’s Forensic Dissection of the Geopolitical Sentiment Engine
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Fear
Market Sentiment
92 million ARB released
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
Block reward halving event
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
Team and early investor shares released
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
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